确定公共教育经费占GDP比重的依据 ─ 基于计量经济学理论的数学模型分析

The Basis of Determining the Proportion between Public Educational Appropriation and GDP：An Econometric Analysis of Mathematical Models

人们对我国教育发展目标中公共教育经费GDP比重达到4%产生质疑的根本原因是相关研究成果中缺乏数学模型建立的理论基础。应用生产函数理论可以证明，劳动力平均教育水平的提高具有指数增长函数性质。要保持经济的高速增长，尤其是在人均劳动资本的高速增长的情况下，劳动力质量的水平与科技进歩应是均衡发展的，增长变化的幅度应是相等的。要保证社会生产水平指数增长，教育投入总值至少要与社会生产产值保持一定的比例关系，公共教育经费与教育投入总值至少保持2╱3的比例关系。走科技先行、可持续发展的道路，公共教育经费占GDP的比重需要逐年提高，带动全社会的教育投入占GDP比重的提高。

The reason why China’s educational development target， namely public educational appropriations accounting for 4% of GDP， triggers heated debates lies in the lack of rationale based on mathematical models. According to production function theory， the improvement of the average education level of labor force is characterized by exponential function. In order to sustain a high─speed economic growth， especially when per capita human capital increases at high speed， improvement of the quality of labor force should keep in pace with the progress of science and technology. To ensure the increase of social production exponent， total educational input value should be proportional to gross social production value at certain level and public educational appropriations should account for at least 2╱3 of gross social input to education. The proportion of common educational appropriations in GDP should be raised year by year， which may contribute to the rise in the proportion of the gross social education input in GDP.