中国高等教育财政经费来源的变迁：国家财政经费与个人学杂费关系的实证研究

Changes in Funding Source of Higher Education in China：an analysis of the Relationship between Government Funding and Student Tuition and Fees

本文利用统计数据对国家财政经费与个人学杂费变化状况、高等教育经费弹性系数和个人负担率进行了计算分析，在此基础上建立自回归模型对2010年的国家财政经费与个人学杂费进行了预测研究，获得的研究结论是：中国的高等教育成本分担政策已经快速实现，国家财政经费比重显得降低，个人学杂费所占比重较快地增加；人均高等教育经费在1999年之前保持增长，1999年之后呈现稳中趋降；个人及其家庭的财政贡献增长速度远远大于政府财政贡献的增长速度，也意味着个人及其家庭对高等教育的经济负担大大加重；今后一段时间内高等教育财政需求面临相当大的压力和隐忧。建议控制高等教育规模的过快扩张，关注生均教育财政指针变化状况，实现高等教育财政来源的更加多样化。

This is a study of the changes in public funding， student tuition， modulus finding elasticity， and personal cost burden rate in higher education in China， using official statistical data. By setting up an autoregressive model， the study forecasts the level of public funding and student tuition in 2010. The main findings are：Chinese higher education has quickly established a cost─sharing contribution scheme， given that the proportion of government funding in total cost has rapidly decreased meanwhile that of private contribution through tuition increased；per student higher education funding contributed to grow until 1999， and since then it began to stabilize and slightly decrease；the growth rate of the proportion of private contribution has been much faster that of the public contribution in higher education funding， therefore as the financial burden of the individual student and their families continue to increase in a rapid fashion， the demand for higher education may face rising pressures and latent problems. The study recommends the government to contain overrapid expansion， monitor closely per student funding and widening funding sources.