教育與經濟關係之檢定

Testing the Relationship between Education and the Economy

本文主要在釐清教育對經濟是否有貢獻。分別以橫斷式及縱貫式資料檢定。橫斷式資料取國際銀行所公布之世界82個國家之第三級教育（高等教育）在學率及平均國民生產（GNP）。依變項是1992年之GNP，自變項?1989之GNP與等教育在學率。主要是要檢定教育擴充對經濟成長之所以沒達顯著是否是由自變項間之多共線性所使然。縱斷式資料取民40-85年之平均國民所得、每生教育經費、及高職以上畢業生數之時間數列，分別配對求交叉相關函數。結果發現，教育對經濟作單迴歸時，其迴歸係數達顯著，但再投入經濟指數變項時，教育指標變項即被淨掉而不達顯著，顯示出有自變項間之多共線性存在，使得教育被認為對經濟沒有貢獻。在時間數列的交叉相關分析中，發現高職以上畢業生人數對平均國民所得有單向影響，平均國民所對每生教育經費也有單向影響。高職以上畢業生數與平均每生教育經費有雙向、同時性影響。本文研究結果支持人力資本論。

This study is to clarify whether education makes a contribution to the economy. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal data were used. Percentage of age group enrolled in tertiary education of 82 countries in 1991 and 1989， and Gross National Products (GNP) per capita of these countries in1992 and 1989 were used as cross-sectional data for linear and nonlinear regression analysis. The purpose is to examine whether the non-significant effect of educational indices on economic indices is due to collinearity among independent variables in the regression equation. Time-series data of (a) GNP per capita， (b) average educational expenditure per student， and (c) total number of graduates of vocational high schools， junior colleges， colleges， and universities were used as longitudinal data to analyze the cross-correlation functions among them. Results show that ：(a) the non-significant effect of educational index on economic index is caused by collinearity， (b) the number of graduates of vocational high schools， junior colleges， colleges and universities， which constitutes the human capita for economic development， has one-directional influence on the average educational expenditure per student， and the average educational expenditure per student ahs concurrent correlation with the total number of graduates of vocational high schools， junior colleges， colleges and universities. These findings support the theory of human capital.