超比例失業指數之創立

The Creation of the Over-Proportional Index of Unemployment

本研究旳主要目的在創立一個公式以計算高職以上各科系之超比例失業指數，並轉化為警訊燈號，修正以往呈現各科系失業率的方式，以供大學在確定新增系所之優先順序時及中學升學輔導之參考。本研究以行政院戶口普查處（民81）所編的「中華民國七十九年台閩地區戶口及住宅普查報告」為素材，比較高職以上各科系失業百分率與母群體十五歲以上勞力人口中各科系的分布百分率，並以一公式求出失業超比例指數。該指數尚可轉化成紅、黃、綠燈以表示失業風險的程度。結果發現失業超比例指數偏高呈紅燈者有(a)民69年男性是國中程度，其次是高職程度；(b)民69年女性失業較嚴重者依次是國中、高職及高中；(c)民796年男性失業較嚴重者依次是國中、高中及高職；(d)民79年女性失業較嚴重者依次是高中、高職及國中程度；(d)79年失業者中，專科程度的男性以工程類較嚴重，(f)79年失業者中，大學程度的女性失業較嚴重是商業及管理類，(g)79年失業者中，研究所程度者男性失業超比例指數較嚴重的是數學及電算類、和商及管理類，而女生較嚴重的是商業及管理類。失業百分率與母群體十五歲以上勞動力各類科的分布百分率相當（失業超比例指數未超過5者）者有(a)民79年男女性高職各類科，9b)79年專科程度的女性各類科，(c)79年大學程度的男心生各類科。本研究建議：行政院主計處（民85）所編的「中華民國台灣地區人力資源統計月報」所用的「中華民國台灣地區人力資源訪問表」裡第6項『學歷與考試之科系』已列(1)文(2)法(3)商、管理(4)理(5)工(6)農(7)醫(8)軍警(9)教育(10)其他。但是這筆資料並未加以分析。將來如能用失業超比例指數來呈現各科系的失業風險。對中學的教育輔導與職業輔導，甚至於對新增科系之審查將是很有價值的資料。

The main purpose of this study is to create a formula to calculate the Over-proportional Index for each academic field of vocational and professional education. The percentage of unemployed civilians aged 15 and over of each academic field was compared with the distribution percentage of each academic field in the labor force population. Then， by mean of a formula， an over-proportional index of unemployment was calculated for each academic field. The index can also be transformed into red-yellow-green signal to indicate the risk level of unemployment. Educational levels and academic fields that had higher risk level （with red signal） were: (a) by 1980 census， males， whose educational level was junior high school， or vocational senior high school， (b) by 1980 census， lemale， whose educational level was junior high school， senior high school， or vocational senior high school (c) by 1990 census， those， regardless of sex， whose educational level was junior high school， senior high school， or vocational senior high school， (d) by 1990 census， males， who studied engineering in junior college， (e) by 1990 census， females， who studied commerce and administration in college or university， (f) by 1990 census， male， who studied “mathematics and computer” or “commerce and administration” and females， who studied “commerce and administration” in graduate school. By 1990 census， it was found that the distribution percentage of academic fields of the unemployed， who (a) graduated from vocational senior high school， (b) are females， and studied in junior college， and (c) are males， and studied in college or university， was as the same as that of labor force population. Therefore their risk of unemployment was low. In the “survey questionnaire of human resources in ROC” of the “Monthly Bulletin of Manpower Statistics in Taiwan Area， ROC” PUBLISHED BY THE Directorate-General of Budget， Accounting and Statistics， Executive Yuan， it has already contained item of academic fields （item 6） as wells as items of employed or unemployed. If the data could be analyzed in form of over-proportional index of unemployment， it would be a valuable information for vocational and educational guidance in high school.