高等教育在學率、預期壽命與國民所得的關聯之縱貫研究

A Longitudinal Study on the Relationship Among Higher Education Enrollment Rate, Life Expectancy and Per Capita Income

本研究探討高等教育在學率、預期壽命與國民所得的關聯性，從世界銀行統計報告書蒐集2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年、2016年、2017年、2018年資料分析各國的高等教育在學率與預期壽命對國民所得的貢獻。獲得結論如下：一、各年度的高等教育在學率與預期壽命對國民所得有正向顯著關聯，代表各國的高等教育擴充及國民健康提升之後，人力資本量累積，提高了國民所得。二、高等教育在學率與預期壽命對國民所得的貢獻會隨著年代的往後推移，每增加預期壽命一歲可以提高國民所百分點8.9%提升至13.1%，而每增加高等教育在學率一個百分比可以提高國民所得則從2.5%下降為1.3%。三、自2000年起，臺灣的高等教育在學率超出世界發展平均水準15.60個百分點，2018年仍超出13.20個百分點。如以2018年各國高等教育在學率與預期壽命對國民所得預測分析，臺灣國民所得應達到30,826.30美元，然而僅有25,838.0美元，少了4,988.30美元。本研究貢獻在於發現，各國的預期壽命對於國民所得的重要性比起高等教育在學率還要大，同時臺灣在人力資本仍有改善空間。針對結果深入討論，提出具體建議。

This research explored the relationship among higher education en-rolment rate, life expectancy and per capita income. Data collected from World Bank statistical reports for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 were used to explore higher education in various countries respec-tively, and to explore the contribution of education enrolment rate and life expectancy to per capita income. The conclusions were as follows: 1. Higher education enrolment rate and life expectancy in each year had a positive and significant correlation with per capita income, which meant that after the expansion of higher education and the improvement of na-tional health in countries, the amount of human capital has accumulated and per capita income has been increased. 2. The contribution of higher education enrolment rate and life expectancy to per capita income will go on with the passage of the decade. An increase in life expectancy by one year can increase the percentage of per capita income by 8.9% to 13.1%, while the enrollment rate of higher education drops from 2.5% to 1.3%. (3) Since 2000, the enrolment rate of higher education in Taiwan has ex-ceeded the world development average by 15.60 percentage points, and it still exceeded 13.20 percentage points in 2018. If the higher education en-rolment rate and life expectancy of various countries were used to predict the per capita income in 2018, Taiwan's per capita income should reach 30,826.30 US dollars, but only 25,838.0 US dollars, which was 4,988.30 US dollars less. The contributions of this research was to find that the life expectancy of various countries was more important to the per capita income than the enrollment rate of higher education. At the same time, it was found that there was still room for improvement in human capital in Taiwan. In-depth discussions on the results and specific suggestions were made.