就學貸款的困境與解決方案：以調整寬限期為例

Difficulties and Solutions of Student Loans: Evidence form Extending Grace Period

為了分析和設計就學貸款，當前和未來畢業生的實際收入或收入預測至關重要。本研究使用主計總處「人力運用調查」數據，模擬畢業生的終生收入狀況。此分析的關鍵因素是，對未來畢業生收入和收入的整體分布進行可靠的模擬。從文獻中，學生貸款的還款負擔是根據畢業生收入以及收入分配的不同百分位數來計算的。就學貸款最新的方案調整，延長寬限期，針對畢業後收入偏低與不穩定的情況，給予緩衝並降低還款壓力。從生涯收入的觀點調整還款計畫，並使就學貸款得以永續發展。

In order to analyze and design student loans, the actual income or income forecast of current and future graduates is crucial. In this study, we used data from the “Manpower Use Survey” to simulate the lifelong earnings of graduates. The key factor of this analysis is to make a reliable simulation of the future graduate income and the distribution of lifelong earnings. From the literature, the repayment burden of student loans is calculated according to different quantiles of graduate income and income distribution. The latest program adjustments for student loans will help to keep the income low and unstable after graduation, buffer and reduce repayment burden. From the point of view of lifelong earnings, adjust the repayment plan and enable the sustainable development of student loans.