The Estimation of Risk Attitude and its Effect on Guessing Tendency: Taking a Multiple- Choice Biology Test as an Example
The ‘rights minus wrongs’ scoring method is often utilized to correct for guessing in multiple-choice items. Recently, by integrating decision theory with Item Response Theory, several studies have suggested that this scoring method may introduce guessing tendency (item response) biases through examinees’ risk attitude. However, none of these studies are field research and have investigated the effect of decision framing and academic ability on the prediction of risk attitude. Based on Prospect Theory and Item Response Theory, the first purpose of this study was to estimate the examinees’ risk attitude and loss attitude from high-stakes test data. By the estimated risk attitude and other variables, the second purpose of this study focused on how academic ability moderates risk attitude prediction about guessing tendency. The material for estimating risk attitude and loss attitude was 5,000 examinees’ multiple-choice item response data in Department Required Biology Test for college entrance. The estimates for risk attitude and loss attitude in the present study were lower than those Tversky and Kahneman (1992) estimated, but still in the interval that most related studies showed. For the second purpose of this study, 3,765 samples were drawn from the 5,000 examinees mentioned above, and their academic ability and guessing tendency were further estimated. To reveal the moderator effect of academic ability, hierarchical multiple regression and Johnson-Neyman technique were conducted in different decision frames. The results revealed that, in the gain frame, higher ability examinee’s risk attitude had more impact on guessing tendency. On the contrary, in the loss frame, lower ability examinee’s risk attitude had more impact. The findings in the study not only had far-reaching implications for examination practice but also could be applied to testing and assessment research.
|關鍵詞||風險態度、倒扣計分、展望理論、猜題、學科能力、risk attitude、rights minus wrongs scoring method、prospect theory、guessing、academic ability|