2020年中国高等教育规模预测偏差成因分析及重估

On the Sources of Bias in the Prediction of China's Higher Education Scale in 2020 and Its Re-evaluation

China's National Plan for Medium and Long-term Education Reform and Development (2010- 2020) proposes a strategic goal that China's gross enrollment rate of higher education will reach 40% by 2020. However， new statistics show that China has achieved the long-term development goals of higher education in 2015， five years in advance. Based on the literature review， the paper identifies three main reasons for the bias of predications， i.e. the constraints of information updating and model difference， the rational bias and the unpredictable policy factors. In some forecast variables of the continuous gross enrollment rate， more accurate predictions are achieved by employing Logistic model， GM (1， 1) model and rolling regression model. By a combination of variance-covariance prediction method and the aforementioned three models， the paper shows that China's higher education gross enrollment rate will reach 50% in 2020.