社會經濟發展與暴力犯罪——2001年至2012年之時間序列分析

Social Economic Development and Violent Crime － Time Series Analysis from 2001-to 2012

本文研究臺灣在2001-2012年間暴力犯罪發生率與各社會經濟發展因素的關聯性，以多變量ANOVA比較暴力犯罪發生率及社會經濟發展變數在金融海嘯前後的差異性，再利用迴歸分析探討社會經濟發展變數對暴力犯罪發生率的影響程度。結果顯示，暴力犯罪發生率在金融海嘯後有顯著下降的差異，在社會經濟發展變數方面，除了吉尼係數與經濟成長率在金融海嘯後無顯著性差異外，其餘變數皆達統計的顯著性差異。在社會經濟發展變數與暴力犯罪發生率的關聯性方面，失業率、貧窮、貧富差距、都市化、職業地位差距與暴力犯罪發生率並無顯著的相關性，但是離婚率對暴力犯罪發生率有顯著正向影響，工業化與暴力犯罪發生率呈現顯著負向相關。此外，本文亦發現暴力犯罪發生率本身存在遞延效果，當月的暴力犯罪發生率會受到前兩個月及前一個月的暴力犯罪發生率顯著正向的影響。暴力犯罪的成因非常複雜，並非單一因素可造成，如未深入了解，很容易就將暴力犯罪原因歸因為單一因素。暴力犯罪成因更不能僅歸咎於個人因素，支配個人行為的外在環境因素，如本文所發現，經濟社會結構的變化亦必須被列入考量。

This paper analyzes the impacts of the socio-economic development factors on the violent crime rate from 2001 to 2012. Multiple ANOVA was used to observe the significant differences of the violent crime rate and the socio-economic development factors, prior to and post the 2008 financial tsunami. This paper finds that the mean of the violent crime rate is significantly reduced after the financial tsunami; the means of all socio-economic development factors are significantly changed after the financial tsunami, except the economic growth rate and Gini coefficient. This paper also adopts correlation coefficient and time series methods to examine the association between socio-economic development and the violent crime rate in Taiwan. The main findings are that the unemployment rate, poverty, Gini coefficient, urbanization and occupational gap all do not have a significant association with the violent crime rate; but the divorce rate has a significantly positive association with the violent crime rate with industrialization having a negative significant association with the violent crime rate. One more important finding is the lagged effect of violent crime rate which implies the violent crime rate of the previous two months would result in a positive effect on the violent crime rate of the present month. The cause of violent crime isn’t single but complicated. We should not attribute the violent crime to personal factors. The environmental factors, such as socio-economic structure change, should be considered when we are devoted to violent crime research and prevention.