中国城市居民教育收益率的变动趋势及其收入分配效应———基于分位回归模型的分析

The Long-term Trend in Rates of Return to Education and Its Effect on Income Distribution in Urban China: An Analysis Based on Quantile Regression Model

本文在明瑟收入方程的基础上，使用入职时的教育和收入水平，分析“纯净”的教育收益率。本研究从新中国成立初期、“文革”时期、改革初期、深入改革时期四个历史阶段分析教育回报率的变化趋势。结果显示，我国城市居民教育回报率呈现先下降后上升的趋势。本文同时使用一般线性回归与分位回归模型，深入观察不同历史时期的教育回报率在不同分位点上的变化。实证结果发现，改革开放前，收入条件分布中、低分位点的教育收益率高于高分位点，教育使得收入水平趋于收敛；改革开放后教育收益率随收入条件分布的分位点的增高而同步提高，教育导致收入差距增加。

Based on the Mincer Equation， this paper revises the model by measuring educational attainment and income level to calculate ＂pure＂ rates of return to education. The study analyzes the trend in rates of return to education in urban China through four periods， i.e. the early years of New China， the Cultural Revolution Decade， the early years of the reform and opening-up， and the phase of deepening reform. The result shows that the rates of return to education first falls and then rises. Moreover， the study uses linear regression model and quantile regression model to analyze the changes in rates of return to education on different quantiles. It is found that the rate of return to education plays different roles in different periods. To be more specific， education narrows the income gap before the commencement of reform and opening-up and widens the income gap afterwards.