明瑟教育收益率述评:计量方法及在中国的估计趋势

Review on Mincer Rate of Return to Education ： Measurement Methods and Estimations of Trend in China

明瑟教育收益率是估算教育经济回报应用最广泛的方法。自明瑟方程提出后，研究者在解决计量偏误方面做出了很多努力，为更精确的估算教育收益率提供了修正方法。在回顾中国研究的基础上，可以发现中国明瑟收益率表现出三个特征：一是改革开放后二十年，明瑟收益率的明显上升；二是近年出现的新趋势，明瑟收益率下降;三是不同群体之间，明瑟收益率差距扩大。第一个特征巳得到了较充分的解释;但第二个和第三个特征作为新现象，还有待研究者更深人的研究，去探索其背后的影响机制。

Mincer earnings estimation is the most popular function to be used to estimate the rate of return to education. After Mincer standard equation proposed， latter researchers have made much effort to rectify and improve the function for more accuracy of estimation. In China， many researchers have used Mincer equation to estimate education’s economic return. Based on a review of China’s research， we summarizes three traits of Mincer rate of return in China： the first one is the obviously increasing trend of Mincer rate of return to education after open and reform policy in China； the second is the recent decreasing of Mincer rate of return to education ； and the third is the larger gap of Mincer rate of return to education emerged between the advantaged group and the disadvantaged group. Previous research has provided sufficient explanation for the first trait； however， as new phenomena， the second and the third traits and the influential mechanism behind them call for more research.